It was only two days ago boos rained down on Twins manager Rocco Baldelli at Target Field. He had just made the unpopular decision, albeit more common in todays game, to pull rookie starter Joe Ryan after 7 no hit innings. Fans had just witnessed a three game sweep over the weekend at the hands of the first place Guardians. Five games out of first place (and most Minnesota fans talking about the Vikings dismantling of the Packers) Twins fans just wanted a chance to see a rare no-hitter in person. Baldelli probably made the right decision when looking at analytics, that buzzword making the rounds ad nauseam in sports. I feel like that moment will be a moment we will look back on as the end of the Baldelli era in Minnesota or the game that kicked off a comeback to win the division.
ITS NOT HOW MANY TIMES YOU GET KNOCKED DOWN..
As it stands now on Thursday night the Twins are four games back from the Guardians and one game back of the White Sox. They just swept the Royals coming off a narrow 3-2 victory. Now the biggest series of the season starts tomorrow and it's not a three gamer, not even a four gamer, but a FIVE game series. That leaves the Twins ample opportunity to pick up some games on Cleveland. At best they can jump the Guardians by a game in the standings or pick up three if they can take 4 out of 5. For this team to win the division I think they have to win four games in this series with only 20 games remaining in the season.
CLEVELAND SERIES
The first game of this series is going to be absolutely pivotal not only to get the confidence up around the the clubhouse but also to put some doubt in the young Guardians minds. They are coming off a blowout loss to second place Chicago and new White Sox shortstop Elvis Andrus didn't mince words before the game saying, "They have been playing perfect up till now. If we keep winning series we know they're going to crumble the closer we get. Tomorrow is going to be a good game for us to put a statement. After that, go to Detroit and win that series." More on Chicago later. ESPN gives Minnesota a 40% chance to win game one with likely starter Bailey Ober coming off the IL for the Twins facing off against Triston McKenzie. It was only last Saturday that McKenzie threw 7 shutout innings against these Twins but he did give up 6 hits and 2 walks so he wasn't exactly lights out. With Ober having an ERA of 4.01 over 7 starts while only giving up 2 HRs it's not crazy to think the Twins win a close one here and put the Guardians on notice. Saturday is a doubleheader with the first game pitting Josh Winder against Shane Bieber. This could be the game we drop as it's a rematch of last Sundays loss at Target Field but Winder didn't pitch horrible and ESPN gives the Twinkies a 35% chance to win. So for arguments sake let's say the series is tied 1-1 with three games left, we remain 4 games back and Chicago moves into a first place tie with Cleveland. The second game of the doubleheader will be TBA vs Pilkington for Cleveland. We are already given a 43% chance to win this game and I like our odds at doing so which puts us up 2-1. Then Sunday afternoon we are favored with Joe Ryan on the hill and Monday afternoon is 50/50 with Sonny Gray toeing the rubber. If we hit the ball on these two days and with momentum in our favor we can win both. That gives us the 4 out of 5 games we need to get back in the thick of the Central race and we fly to Kansas City a game behind Cleveland and Chicago.
THE HOME STRETCH
That leaves us with three on the road in KC, which we should realistically take 2 of 3. Then we travel home to face the Los Angeles Angels who are eliminated at this point in the season and we get them for 2 outta 3. We stay at home for a HUGE three game series versus the White Sox. At this point they are cooling off and we are in the middle of a hot streak, they feel the pressure of having to play perfect for over a month now and drop two to us which allows the Twins to take sole possession of first place at long last! The final six games of the season are all on the road with the first three coming against a lifeless Detroit squad and then we finish the year in Chicago to finish them off for good and redeem that 2008 team that lost Game 163 in Chicago 14 years ago. Now, if all goes according to plan I will have at least one more chapter to write..