COURSE DESCRIPTION:
Harbour Town Golf Links is a course where driving accuracy becomes a bit more important than distance. As always, approach is a key stat here, with most second shots coming from less than 175 yards. The course will play as a Par 71 at 7213 total yards. The greens are smaller than the average PGA course and are relatively easy to navigate, especially after what golfers experienced at Augusta last weekend.
$10K & UP:
LUDVIG ABERG ($10,800)
14.6% RST 4th Place (-13) Avg Score: 69.5
Lucky Ludvig is becoming my new favorite golfer and with an average drive distance of 307.6 yards there's a lot to love about his game out of the tee box. Is drive accuracy checks in at 68.3 and he's hitting 68.7 GIR. It's gonna be tough for the rest of the field to catch him and Ludvig may just go on to win this tournament after an impressive showing at The Masters last week. I don't care if his putting isn't up to snuff according to some because this isn't a course with greens that we need to worry about. Load up on the Swede.
RORY MCILROY ($10,500)
14.7% RST 12th Place (-10) Avg Score: 70.4
I'd be an absolute fool to leave the Irishman Rory off the studs grouping. This year his average drive distance is 313.1 yards and his drive accuracy sits at 72.1 which is absurd. He does however leave a lot to be desired with a GIR of 65.4 and he does struggle around the green for too much for a golfer of his caliber costing you an arm and a leg. For this reason I'll be limiting my exposure.
$9K RANGE:
PATRICK CANTLAY ($9,800)
10.8% RST 7th Place (-12) Avg Score: 70.2
Cantlay is excellent inside 100 yards and that's pivotal at this course. If he finds himself in one of the many hazardous bunkers he has the ability to save par considering he's one of the best hitting out of the sand. Nothing Patrick Cantlay does will WOW you but the guy is consistent out of the tee box and extremely accurate. His game is tailor made for this course especially on a weekend like this with no wind or rain to worry about.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD ($9,500)
10.8% RST 59th Place (-1) Avg Score: 70.5
Coming back to the course fit narrative I talked about with Cantlay, Harbour Town seems to fit Tommy Fleetwood's game perfectly. He tends to be extremely accurate off the tee that is followed by an excellent approach game. He had a great showing at The Masters last week finishing (T3) and that drove his ownership up in this tournament. Now that we're heading into the 4th round and Tommy is sitting at (-1) that ownership has gone down again so I'll have some shares.
MAX HOMA ($9,100)
8.8% RST 33rd Place (-6) Avg Score: 70.4
With an average drive distance of 299.8 yards and a 64.6 drive accuracy, Homas game doesn't suits this course well but it's playing very easy at the moment. Max also has a 66.5 GIR and he'll have to continue hitting those greens in regulation to keep up with pack. He definitely leaves a lot to be desired off the tee but he's been doing just fine and his low ownership is intriguing.
MY OPTIMAL PICKS:
RUSSELL HENLEY ($8,500)
8.5% RST 21st Place (-8) Avg Score: 70.1
I absolutely love is approach over 100 yards which is critical here and he's extremely accurate with his driver. If Henley can settles in then his price point won't be looked at negatively but with his game matching up to others so closely I don't love going overboard on him but definitely mix him into a few lineups.
DENNY MCCARTHY ($7,300)
8.4% RST 21st Place (-8) Avg Score: 70.1
He lines up shockingly similar to Russell Henley but at a $1,200 discount. Denny McCarthy has all the tools needed to succeed at this course and his biggest advantage is his short game around the green. If he's ever in a hazard he is one of the best golfers at coming away unscathed and making it look easy. I'll have quite a lot of ownership on Denny and will be over the field.